Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
